On the limitations of comparing mean square forecast errors

Linear models are invariant under non-singular, scale-preserving linear transformations, whereas mean square forecast errors (MSFEs) are not. Different rankings may result across models or methods from choosing alternative yet isomorphic representations of a process. One approach can dominate others for comparisons in levels, yet lose to another for differences, to a second for cointegrating vectors and to a third for combinations of variables. The potential for switches in ranking is related to criticisms of the inadequacy of MSFE against encompassing criteria, which are invariant under linear transforms and entail MSFE dominance. An invariant evaluation criterion which avoids misleading outcomes is examined in a Monte Carlo study of forecasting methods.     

灰铸铁的应力屈服曲面及其三维热弹塑性应力解析

对原有的灰铸铁件应力屈服曲面进行了合理的简化,使其在理论上合理,工程应用上更为方便。建立了灰铸铁件三维非稳态热弹塑性应力场的有限元方法。以灰铸铁哑铃件为对象,用新屈服曲面对其应力发展过程进行了模拟,且比较了用新旧屈服面计算得到的结果。     

Choroidal and iris angioarchitecture of the newt: A scanning electron-microscopic study of vascular corrosion casts

The corrosion cast technique provided for the first time an excellent three-dimensional visualization of the vascular pattern of the choroid and iris in the newt eye. The results show the presence of a single arterial afference to the choroidal and iris capillaries: the ophthalmic artery is the origin fo both ciliary arteries and the long posterior ciliary artery. Slightly behind the equatorial circumference of the eyeball the venous drainage consists of a single vessel on the dorsal side and two distinct vessels on the ventral one. It receives blood from both iris and choroid. The surface of the plastic endocasts shows some details of fine luminal structures of the endothelial cells. Shallow depressions may be regarded as imprints of endothelial cell nuclei, and they are distinctly different for arteries and capillaries. The angioarchitecture of the newt eye differs from that of brain in that hairpin-shaped capillary loops are not observed at all.     

系列硫氮环分子的量子化学从头算研究

本文用从头算方法,采用 STO—3G 基组,对系列硫氮环分子(包括未知分子)的基态几何构型进行了全优化,在优化的结果基础上,比较了硫氮环分子的稳定性,得出了硫氮环分子的稳定构型,本文还讨论了硫氮环分子的芳香性问题,说明在硫氮环系列分子中,只有一部分具有“多电子芳香性”。同时预测了 S_2N_3~+和 S_5N_~(2+)合成的可能性。     

Phenological studies of selected savanna mosses of south-western Nigeria

It was established that there is little diversity of bryophytes in the derived savanna. Mosses were found in the sampling sites, whereas liverworts were rarely observed. The reproductive methods of four dominant sexually reproducing savanna mosses —Archidium ohioense, Bryum coronatum, Fissidens minutifolius andTrachycarpidium tisserantii were monitored over two consecutive rainy seasons. Protonemal and gametophyte production were noticed in the field in March/April, and capsule dehiscence and spore dispersal occurred in September/October. The sequential stages of development, starting with gametangial production and ending with the falling of the dehisced capsules, occurred within the rainy season. However,A. ohioense andT. tisserantii did not discharge their spores easily (cleistocarpous), unlike the stegocarpous speciesB. coronatum andF. minutifolius. Water availability and possibly high humidity may have contributed to growth. The short period between sex organ formation and dehiscence of capsule seen in these studies, compared with the longer period in some temperate mosses, may be an advantage for bryophytes in a savanna environment.     

提高大型仪器设备利用率的新途径

大型仪器设备是高校开展教学、科研的物质保证,是高校实验室的主要技术装备,衡量一所高校办学实力和水平的重要指标之一.……     

Are you growing systems thinking managers? Use a systems model to teach and practice organizational analysis and planning,management policy,and organizational development

This paper discusses the use of the Kast and Rosenzweig systems and contingency model for teaching and practice in organizational analysis and planning, management policy, and organizational development. The need for an organizational model for graduate students and field-based managers and executives is identified. The model is presented beginning with the Kast and Rosenzweig work, with integration of research by Daft, Schein, Trist, Deal and Kennedy, Ackoff, Delbecq, and Mintzberg. The teaching and practice uses of the model in four areas are presented, including organizational analysis and planning, management policy making, and organizational development. In each area case examples of the use of the model in teaching and practice are presented. Needs for future research and implications for the use of the model are discussed.     

C~3I系统工程可靠性评估技术研究

针对Ｃ￣３Ｉ系统分层管理拓扑结构模式，文章重点对系统可靠性度量指标及其相互关系、系统可靠性模型设计与可靠度计算等重要技术进行了研究。本文可对Ｃ￣３Ｉ系统工程总体技术设计可行性论证，以及系统验收评审提供参考。     

多变量自校正控制计算机辅助设计软件系统

本文介绍了一个可帮助用户进行多变量自校正控制系统设计,而使用户不必了解算法细节的计算机辅助设计(CAD)软件系统;它既包括一些经典的自校正控制算法,又引入了一些近年来新研究的成果。使用情况表明,该系统算法先进,使用方便,控制效果较好,是一个实用的软件工具。